Sunday, November 23, 2008

Biggest Slowdown Since 1929

By Don Bethune

Partially because of the rapid growth in telecommunications and Information Technology we have seen growth parameters including the GDP rising continuously during the 1990's any beyond. While economic indicators are naturally cyclical, the recent sharp declines on the global scale have far exceeded the expectations of economic experts analysts. In Asia as well as Europe and the USA these declines have been the steepest since 1929.

This unfortunate and however remarkable incident has proved the need of redefining and re-strengthening the current financial chemistry. For instance the biggest bail out package, cuts in CRR up to 150 bps have proved itself insufficient to prevent the steep fall in stock indexes across different global exchanges.

It seems strange that the collapse of several major financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers came as such a surprise. Hindsite shows that there were plenty of danger signals which if heeded may have prevented this major problem. The business model of Lehman Brothers, their lending practices, and their operating practices, if attended to and revised at an earlier time may have saved the company and kept employees and shareholders holding a bag containing precious little.

The question arises here is how long and how many times a country or banks would be able to prevent these debacle? Is our strategy of investment or portfolio being adopted is healthy enough to promise a sustainable growth rate. Surprisingly the recent G7 meeting couldn't find out feasible solutions.

Ironically at the present juncture economies like China and US who always stand Back to Back have without joining their had are trying their level best to save their economy which in turn, though un-intentional is helping other countries to recover from the same.

The practice of instituting financial rescue or bailout packages begs the question as to how long and at what cost will financial institutions and economies be able to withstand the pressure leading to future debacles. While the financial situation is under repair the investor has to review is or her own patterns of investment to determine how, from this time forward, to gain a sustainable growth rate.

Instead of finding out all these hook and crook at the time of turmoil political leaders of prosperous and responsible nations should sit together to decide strategies, which can prevent such collapses in future. IF incase these solutions doesn't crop up from them then small investors should be careful while making any decision in putting their money in.

We may feel sometimes that a plunge in the stock market affects only the major stockholders, the "big boys". It is not always apparent that a decline in the stock market means that companies issuing stock suddenly find themselves with insufficient capital to meet their goals. The results can mean decreased production, lower wages, and lost jobs. Eventually these negatives can and will affect the average citizen. As a part of any recovery package the average citizen needs to be educated as to what the big picture means to him or her. - 15433

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